Sunday, February 6, 2011
The 2012 Crisis-I
Nowadays, all scholars are wondering what will happen in 2012 when we do not discuss the Hollywood movie “2012.” The geopolitics in the Asian-Pacific region is going to have a tsunami. In 2012, we will see,
USA: The presidential race, Barack Obama might be a one term president. Will right-wing Republicans take the White House?
Russia: The presidential race, Dmitry Medvedev might be elected for another term. How will this impact relationships between Vladimir Putin and Medvedev in Russia?
China: The 18th CCP congress, Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao are going retired. The new generation including Xi Jinping will take in charge in Beijing.
South Korea: The residential race, the right-wing Lee Myung Bak might lose the election. The “sunshine” policy toward Pyongyang might return to power again in the Korean peninsular.
Taiwan: The Presidential race, Ma Ying-jeou might be elected for another term. Will the opposition party DPP (Democratic Progressive Party) be still be the opposition party?
Japan: If Kan Naoto does not dissolve the Diet, the lower house election will be held in 2012 when the term expires. Will LDP or DPJ win the election?
With all these uncertainties, no scholars in the world can make any prediction regarding the 2012 international relations in the Asian-Pacific region. What will happen between mainland China and Taiwan? How about Sino-Japanese relations? Will the US lose control in the Asian region? How about Russian-US relations? Can Japan get alone with Russia? How will Kim Jong Il and his son Kim Jong Un be in the Korean Peninsula? A lot of questions, no answers. Welcome to 2012!